What will socialising look like in the post-pandemic era?

More than 15 months after the World Health Organization’s pandemic declaration, the post-COVID-19 future for the global food and drink industry remains cloudy. Nowhere is this truer than in the away-from-home space, where lockdowns and other restrictions have forced hundreds of thousands of bars and restaurants around the world to close. Whilst many consumers are eager to resume old social activities, many habits and preferences formed under lockdown are likely to persist even among the fully vaccinated.

Today PACRIM explores what the various paths to a new normal could look like, with a special emphasis on where and how post-pandemic consumers will rejoin social life, as well as the products and experiences they will choose to indulge in as they do so.

The pandemic is unlikely to mean a complete upending of old social practices, of course, but neither should one simply assume global “Roaring Twenties”-style mania for indulgence—a term which is itself a major simplification of conditions in the 1920s.

Instead, what we are seeing is a reset. With old activities not available, consumers have been forced to adapt, creating space for new products and experiences--such as higher-quality home drinks machines or better-quality cannabis products—which will remain a part of their regular purchasing habits for years to come.

Defining The Post-pandemic Social Environment

Dispersed

• Remote work and significant investments in home equipment mean a wider range of sites to meet and socialise throughout the week

More variety

• 15-18 months of trying new products and services in an effort to replace lost connections have given new brands a real foothold in future habits

A note of caution

• While the desire for normalcy is real, a year and a half of new habits is unlikely to be discarded overnight, with concerns about safety, crowds and health likely to persist among significant numbers of consumers

Innovative experiences are key

• With home consumption and delivery adoption likely to remain well ahead of 2019 figures, on-trade operators could find themselves competing for a smaller overall pie.

• At the same time, high-value, premium away-from-home experiences will remain crucial to driving adoption discovery, and branding.

Exploring Recreating Social Occasions

This concept of reset is useful because it allows for the exploration of several concurrent trends. As noted previously, with old habits paused, new habits have space to form. Whilst COVID-19 has unquestionably brought new pressures, a pause also allows consumers space to try new activities more in line with current trends, desires, and positions in life, possibly supplanting or complementing socialising habits formed at a much younger age.

E-commerce adoption is a good example of this, with many consumers—particularly older consumers—making far more purchases via e-commerce in the last year than they had previously. Whilst some of this will likely shift back post-pandemic, much will remain, filling needs and providing new utility.

A similar process is underway in terms of the way consumers socialise and indulge. Lockdowns and social distancing measures have forced consumers to improvise, trying out new products and new approaches to socialising with typical away-from-home channels and daily activities off-limits.

Whilst many consumers will eagerly return to bars, restaurants, and coffee shops post-pandemic, new paths have been forged, new spending habits built—some of these will prove preferable to old patterns, particularly in terms of convenience and variety.

Greater atomisation and individualisation

• Social media, smartphones, gaming all can drive greater isolation

• Time spent at home under lockdown can accelerate existing trends

New attitudes towards substances and experiences

• Attitudes towards health and indulgence shifting steadily pre-COVID-19.

• With bars closed, consumers have the opportunity to try new products and new substances in a relatively ontrolled environment

Shifting work habits

• Long-term shifts towards flexibility, remote work in some industries vastly accelerated by pandemic

• “Infrastructure of socialising” heavily tied to daily work, commute patterns

Heavy investment in DTC capabilities

• Direct-to-consumer capabilities already increasingly vital to brands’ data, loyalty strategies

• Any long-term weakness in existing away-from-home channels to force new approaches to reaching new consumers, driving effective product discovery